Descriptions of the multiple methods for calculating a counterfactual baseline in an Inventory project.
Introducing baselines (or counterfactuals)
An important aspect of quantifying carbon outcomes is defining and calculating a baseline (or a counterfactual). The baseline counterfactual is a scenario that depicts the events on a field (along with weather and other meta data) that would have happened on a field without an intervention/practice change.
In practice, this is often the continuation of pre-intervention practices. Then this data is modeled to calculate a counterfactual outcome. In this way, Intervention module's baselines provide a hypothetical emissions.
Comparing this counterfactual baseline emissions to the practice change emissions results in a “delta”, or difference in emissions that corresponds to a carbon outcome (and subsequently can be verified as a carbon credit).
As multi-year programs progress the historic period (pre-intervention) stay constant while the counterfactual baselines continue to grow with the program.
What is autogeneration logic in the Intervention module?
Measure API has logic to “auto” generate the counterfactual baseline events from a given field history. The logic implemented corresponds with the client-selected baseline methodology described in the next section.
Developer note: Baseline “auto” generation is only applied when historical_baseline and intervention scenario types are provided in the sessionInput.
How are baselines calculated?
It's not just important to define what counterfactual is but a how the events are derived. Regrow supports multiple baseline generation methodologies
Some carbon protocols (ex: CAR SEP, Verra VM0042) and verifiers define a methodology to be used when following their protocol, and logic is implemented accordingly.
Rotational
For projects following Verra’s VM0042 protocol or for scope 3 projects.
Blended
For projects following CAR’s SEP protocol (their threaded blended baseline) or for scope 3 projects.
Matched
For projects following CAR’s SEP protocol (as long as there is a consistent crop rotation) or for scope 3 projects.
Climate matched (rice)
For scope 3 projects. Not approved for use via any protocol yet and would require a deviation request at this time.
Climate matched
Coming in 2025.
For scope 3 projects. Not approved for use via any protocol yet and would require a deviation request at this time.
Rotational
A rotational baseline method derives the counterfactual events by continuing the pattern of the existing historic crop rotation. It will “replay” historical cultivation cycles to the project the rotation as if it were to continue without interruption.
Blended
A blended baseline method derives the counterfactual events from the field's history, replaying multiple “threads” (cultivation cycles) into the counterfactual which represent all possible hypothetical outcomes One thread is created for each cycle of historical data. Each “thread” represents a possible outcome, and all threads are simulated and averaged for the final counterfactual emissions value for the field.
Matched
A matched baseline methodology derives the counterfactual events from the field history by using only historical management activity from the same ('matched') crop type as the crediting year (intervention year or crediting crop). When the crediting crop is present in the historical rotation for more than one cultivation cycle, a counterfactual baseline ‘thread’ is created for each occurrence. This is designed by CAR to ‘normalize’ the management practices from the history, and therefore anomalous events from a single year would have less impact in determining the counterfactual.
Climate matched
Both climate matched baselines are a modified version of the matched baseline method but that accounts for the difference in growing season timing and duration between the historical baseline and intervention years. In the matched Baseline method, the exact historical events are applied to the counterfactual baseline. In the climate matched baselines, those events are instead applied to dates in the counterfactual relative to the intervention year planting date and growing season length. All other event information in the counterfactual is carried over from historical baselines.
Note: Rice projects should use the rice focused climate matched baseline methodology to ensure flooding dates are replayed correctly.
What a baseline isn’t
A “footprint” of emissions on a field: Intervention baselines are not meant to be used as an emissions starting point. It does not represent the current emissions on a field before the adoption of a practice change, but rather the emissions that would have happened during the time period of the practice change.